Before Saturday’s action gets underway, some thoughts on potential seeding.

1. Arizona State (RPI: 2)
6-2 vs. RPI top 10, 15-5 vs. RPI top 25, 20-5 vs. RPI top 50

2. Alabama (RPI: 3)
5-3 vs. RPI top 10, 10-7 vs. RPI top 25, 19-8 vs. RPI top 50

3. Texas (RPI: 1)
2-3 vs. RPI top 10, 12-5 vs. RPI top 25, 20-6 vs. RPI top 50

4. Georgia (RPI: 5)
6-3 vs. RPI top 10, 16-6 vs. RPI top 25, 24-9 vs. RPI top 50

5. Florida (RPI: 4)
3-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-8 vs. RPI top 25, 20-9 vs. RPI top 50

6. Missouri (RPI: 6)
3-3 vs. RPI top 10, 9-5 vs. RPI top 25, 19-6 vs. RPI top 50

7. California (RPI: 7)
3-3 vs. RPI top 10, 13-6 vs. RPI top 25, 17-9 vs. RPI top 50

8. Michigan (RPI: 10)
2-0 vs. RPI top 10, 6-0 vs. RPI top 25, 12-2 vs. RPI top 50

9. Arizona (8 RPI)
1-8 vs. RPI top 10, 13-14 vs. RPI top 25, 18-14 vs. RPI top 50

10. Tennessee (RPI: 13)
3-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-7 vs. RPI top 25, 14-8 vs. RPI top 50

11. Oklahoma (RPI: 9)
3-5 vs. RPI top 10, 9-11 vs. RPI top 25, 17-15 vs, RPI top 50

12. Baylor (RPI: 12)
4-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-9 vs. RPI top 25, 17-10 vs. RPI top 50

13. Washington (RPI: 11)
3-8 vs. RPI top 10, 9-13 vs. RPI top 25, 13-13 vs. RPI top 50

14. Oregon (RPI: 15)
3-7 vs. RPI top 10, 8-11 vs. RPI top 25, 14-12 vs. RPI top 50

15. Texas A&M (RPI: 16)
2-6 vs. RPI top 10, 7-10 vs. RPI top 25, 14-12 vs. RPI top 50

16. Stanford (RPI: 20)
2-6 vs. RPI top 10, 9-11 vs. RPI top 25, 11-13 vs. RPI top 50

Other contenders
Georgia Tech (RPI: 14)
0-2 vs. RPI top 10, 0-2 vs. RPI top 25, 14-3 vs. RPI top 50

UCLA (RPI: 19)
3-8 vs. RPI top 10, 7-14 vs. RPI top 25, 11-15 vs. RPI top 50

Oklahoma State (RPI: 18)
2-7 vs. RPI top 10, 5-10 vs. RPI top 25, 12-14 vs. RPI top 50

Notre Dame (RPI: 17)
1-2 vs. RPI top 10, 3-4 vs. RPI top 25, 8-6 vs. RPI top 50

Random thoughts
It’s easy to make too much of conference tournaments — in those conferences that stage them, they’re the last thing any of us see, obviously. But Georgia Tech’s loss against Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals nevertheless feels like a problem for the Yellow Jackets. They only played two games all season against teams currently ranked in the RPI top 25 — both against Georgia — and they didn’t win either of them. That they only lost once against teams ranked between 11-50 in the RPI (an eight-inning loss to Kansas) helps their case. but without the chance to get two more top-50 wins, not to mention doubling up their ACC hardware, I’m not sure the committee will slot them in ahead of their competition from the Pac-10 or Big 12.

Michigan jumps its RPI a little in these projections to claim the final hosting position for super regionals. Like Georgia Tech, Michigan is hurt by a lack of quality games, but the difference is the Wolverines made the most of those games they had against top-10 and top-25 opponents. Arizona is a tricky case because it’s reasonable to think the committee will have consider the Kenzie Fowler factor when it comes to the weak record against top-10 opponents (although the Wildcats had Fowler in the circle when they lost 8-0 to the Wolverines at the Garman).

I still have a hard time believing UCLA, if anywhere close to the cut, won’t land on the seed side of the ledger. That said, Stanford’s win at Arizona State on Friday night might set up the unthinkable. The Cardinal won two of three at UCLA and have an overall resume at least as strong. If the Cardinal drop the finale in Tempe and the Bruins clinch a series win at Oregon, maybe this flips the other way. A case could also be constructed for UCLA displacing Oregon if the former wins the series.

Yes, the RPI is out of order for Arizona above. There was an odd character displaying when it was in the right order, and it’s too early on Saturday for me to figure out why. So, yeah.

Projections for the 34 at-large bids below, listed alphabetically by conference. The team currently in position for the automatic bid in each respective conference is also listed in parentheses and not counted toward the total of 34.

Leagues not listed project only the lone automatic qualifier making the field of 64.

At-large teams
ACC: (Georgia Tech), Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina
Big 12: (Texas), Baylor, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
Big East: (Notre Dame), DePaul, Louisville, Syracuse
Big Ten: (Michigan), Illinois, Indiana
Big West: (Pacific), Long Beach State
Conference USA: (Houston), East Carolina, Memphis, Tulsa, UAB
Mountain West: (BYU), San Diego State
Pac-10: (Arizona State), Arizona, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
SEC: (Alabama), Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee
WAC: (New Mexico State), Fresno State

Last five teams in
No. 64 Florida State
RPI: 51
5-13 vs. RPI top 50
15-24 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Long Beach, Maryland, BYU

No. 63 North Carolina
RPI 41
4-13 vs. RPI top 50
17-18 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Maryland (2), Penn State, Jacksonville, Florida State (3)

No. 62 East Carolina
RPI 44
7-13 vs. RPI top 50
14-17 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: UAB (2), Maryland, Tulsa (2), Memphis, Longwood

No. 61 Illinois
RPI 37
4-17 vs. RPI top 50
17-20 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Maryland, Fordham, Penn State, Longwood

No. 60 Memphis
RPI 43
6-9 vs. RPI top 50
11-10 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Stanford, Kentucky, Houston, UAB, East Carolina (2)

First five teams out
No. 65 Longwood
50 RPI
5-5 vs. RPI top 50
12-10 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Georgia, Notre Dame, East Carolina, Penn State (2)

No. 66 Penn State
RPI 46
4-14 vs. RPI top 50
18-21-1 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Oklahoma, Fresno State, Tulsa, Illinois

No. 67 South Florida
RPI 53
5-15 vs. RPI top 50
7-16 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Syracuse (3), DePaul, Illinois State

No 68 Florida International
RPI 59
5-10 vs. top 50
13-21 vs. top 100
Key wins: Georgia Tech (2), Louisiana-Lafayette, Memphis, Penn State

No. 69 Hawaii
RPI 55
4-10 vs. RPI top 50
11-14 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Oklahoma. Stanford, Long Beach, Longwood

Bubble Bursters
Illinois State (Missouri Valley), Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt) and Fordham (Atlantic 10) project as at-large teams if they fail to win automatic bids in conference tournaments. The same is true of Pacific, if it surrenders its lead in the Big West during the final weekend of the regular season. All four would knock teams off the bubble if they needed to avail themselves of the at-large route.

Conversely, if Fresno State wins the WAC tournament, no other team in the conference projects as an at-large team, opening up one more at-large spot in the projections above.

Same drill as last week. The league below earn multiple bids in this projection. The current leader (or a flip of the coin in the case of the SEC) is listed in parentheses.

ACC: (Florida State), UNC, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami
Big 12: (Texas A&M), Oklahoma State, Texas
Big East: (Marquette), Notre Dame, Georgetown, West Virginia
Big Ten: (Ohio State), Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
Conference USA: (Central Florida) Memphis
Mountain West: (New Mexico), BYU
Pac-10: (Stanford), Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Cal, Washington
SEC: (Florida), South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia
West Coast: (Portland), Santa Clara, San Diego

Given the results of the weekend, it’s still difficult to see the ACC’s ninth team getting left at home. Duke all but locked up a spot with its wins. In this projection, Virginia Tech is the ninth-place team (although it’s entirely possible they pass Miami this coming weekend). And based on current data only, even at 8-8-1, an RPI of 37 with wins against Maryland and Boston College is enough to escape the bubble.

That leaves five at-large spots below. For what it’s worth, among teams listed above, I have Minnesota, Auburn, California, Georgia and Virginia Tech as the closest to the bubble, listed from most secure to least secure.

Last five in (RPI listed to left)
39 Nebraska (4-5-1 vs. top 100, 2-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
At this point, I wouldn’t say Nebraska is in much trouble — a case could be made that California and Georgia, among others, are in dicier positions. But the Cornhuskers’ overall profile is starting to look a little hollow without any kind of positive result in a top-25 game — Texas being the biggest prize on their resume. That may sound hypocritical, given the next team on this list, but everything is relative.

50 Oklahoma (5-5-2 vs. top 100, 1-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
Losing with barely five minutes to play at Texas A&M surely has the Sooners wondering what might have been, but a win at Texas is a big enough prize in its own right. Oklahoma feasted on RPI teams between 51-100 this season, which is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to the bubble, but beating the Longhorns on the road is a much needed top-50 win.

43 Michigan (3-3-3 vs. top 100, 1-2-1 vs. top 50, 0-2-0 vs. top 25)
Six points would have been perfect, four points would have been nice, but three points do the trick for now when it comes to the Wolverines. Lacking any top 50 wins on the season, they edged Minnesota on the road in the second overtime period (also losing to Wisconsin on the road in a second overtime). That gave Michigan a nice boost in the RPI ratings at a time when other bubble teams were taking a step in the wrong direction. Home against Illinois and on the road against Penn State to close the season will tell the tale, but for now, Wolverines are in.

42 Texas Tech (4-6-1 vs. top 100, 1-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
The Red Raiders are confounding. This week’s RPI drop makes them a more natural fit for the bubble, but it’s still a number that works to their advantage given the company here. The win at Oklahoma earlier in the season looks better after the Sooners went to Texas and won (it’s even technically a top-50 win at this point), but Sunday’s 5-2 loss at home against Missouri is a blow and giving up seven goals on the weekend doesn’t do much for the eye test. A lot of opportunity remains — beat Baylor this weekend and they might avoid a Big 12 quarterfinal date with either Texas A&M or Oklahoma State. For now, given events elsewhere, I’ll put them back in the field.

55 Long Beach (3-3-0 vs. top 100, 2-3-0 vs. top 50, 1-1-0 vs. top 25)
The bad news for Long Beach State is there’s little left for them to do to help themselves further, closing the season against two teams, UC Davis and Pacific, outside the RPI top 100. Losing 2-1 against UC Irvine over the weekend wasn’t a bad loss by any stretch of the imagination, but the reality is it was a missed opportunity that may come back to haunt the 49ers. Turning around for a top-100 win against Northridge on Sunday helps, but there is a lot riding on those wins against Virginia Tech at the end of August and Arizona State at the end of September.

First five out
53 Louisville (5-7-0 vs. top 100, 2-6-0 vs. top 50, 1-4-0 vs. top 25)
The first two teams on this list meet in a Big East first-round game in Storrs, Conn. on Thursday afternoon, so one gets a boost and one drops out of the mix (by rule, if it’s UConn, which would drop under .500 with a loss). For Louisville, losing at Rutgers to close the regular season was just one more part of a second-half slide that may prove too much for early success to trump.

58 Connecticut (4-6-3 vs. top 100, 2-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-1 vs. top 25)

45 SMU (3-6-1 vs. top 100, 1-4-0 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
The effort was there with a solid nonconference schedule, but the body of work just isn’t there with only a win against New Mexico to show for five games against likely NCAA tournament teams, topped by a pair of 3-0 losses against Central Florida and Memphis in recent weeks.

46 South Florida (2-4-3 vs. top 100, 0-3-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-1 vs. top 25)
The RPI puts them ahead of teams like Oklahoma and Long Beach, but the nonconference schedule is too weak to justify a bid for a team with only wins against Louisville and Cincinnati to show for their top-100 games.

52 Michigan State (2-4-3 vs. top 100, 0-2-2 vs. top 50, 0-2-0 vs. top 25)
The Spartans needed more than a draw against Minnesota out of a big weekend (which also included a loss at Wisconsin). But there is still room to make a move with games remaining against Illinois and Ohio State, as well as Iowa.

Closing kick: Neither Missouri nor Penn State are currently in line for the NCAA tournament because of losing records, but both remain in the hunt. Penn State, in particular, should be able to get above .500. And if the Nittany Lions had one more win right now, any win, they would be in the field with a 3-4-1 top-50 record, including a win against West Virginia and tie against Virginia. Missouri has much more work to do, but a run to the Big 12 final might make things interesting.

Next five out
Rutgers
Houston
Baylor
Loyola Marymount
Siena

Bubble bursters: Hofstra, UC Irvine and UNC-Greensboro. Outside possibilities for Dayton and Toledo. Boston University and Denver at least in the bubble discussion without other upsets.

1. The ACC picture now looks even more muddled. Miami’s 2-0 win against Virginia Tech and Duke’s 3-0 win against Boston College are both giant wins for teams on or near-ish the bubble. It’s Miami’s fourth ACC win, just the second time they’ve reached that mark. And considering they close with Virginia, Boston College and Maryland, this was the best chance for the Hurricanes to get that fourth win. The Hokies are now the odd team out when it comes to the ACC tournament (although they have should-win games remaining against Clemson and NC State to help change that), but they have arguably the best NCAA at-large profile out of the trio in this conversation. Virginia Tech beat Boston College and Maryland and tied Wake Forest, in addition to top-100 wins against LSU and Vanderbilt.

2. I have Long Beach State in possession of the last at-large bid, but the 49ers missed a chance that may come back to haunt them in losing 1-0 against UC Irvine. Even at home, it wasn’t a game Long Beach necessarily should have won, but even a point against a top-20 RPI team would have helped the cause a great deal. Sunday’s home game against Northridge, a top-100 team, is a must-win.

3. Wins at Tennessee on Sunday and at Auburn next week, plus an upset or two in the SEC tournament, and maybe we revisit it, but Alabama’s 3-0 loss at home to Georgia probably closes the books on any at-large hopes.

4. Auburn is digging itself a hole. Losing to Tennessee after back-to-back ties last weekend against Vanderbilt and Kentucky puts the Tigers squarely on the bubble. The Florida and Florida State wins are nice, and there is some depth as well, but 2-4-2 in your last eight isn’t going to cut it. If Sunday’s game against Georgia isn’t a must-win, and perhaps that’s still a bit strong, it’s at least a must-draw.

5. On seeding matters, it wasn’t a great night for ACC teams hoping to claim a second No. 1 seed (assuming UNC is in line for one of them already). Boston College is out of that mix, and increasingly in danger of being out of the mix for any of the top 16 seeds, after the loss at Duke. Maryland is in trouble after losing at Wake Forest, with a visit to North Carolina on Sunday. And Virginia and Florida State didn’t settle much with a 0-0 draw. All that said, with games remaining against Miami, Clemson and NC State, I still think Virginia has the best chance to sneak in and challenge Notre Dame (or possibly Oklahoma State) for a No. 1 seed.