To get this out of the way, these projections are not based on which teams I think should earn bids to the NCAA tournament. These are only projections of which teams I think would earn bids if the selection committee went about its business today, Oct. 20.
It’s my opinion, to be sure, but it’s not my opinion of any team’s subjective worth or my opinion of what will happen in the remaining weeks of the regular season and conference tournaments.
With that out of the way, here are the conferences which currently project with multiple bids. The current leader (or a flip of the coin in the case of the ACC and SEC) is listed in parentheses and doesn’t count toward the at-large pool.
ACC: (North Carolina), Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Duke
Big 12: (Oklahoma State), Texas A&M, Texas, Nebraska,
Big East: (Marquette), Notre Dame, Georgetown, West Virginia
Big Ten: (Ohio State), Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
Conference USA: (Houston), Central Florida, Memphis
Mountain West: (New Mexico), BYU
Pac-10: (Stanford), Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Cal
SEC: (Florida), South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia
West Coast: (Portland), Santa Clara, San Diego
That leaves five at-large spots available. (Not all of the above are “safe” at-large teams — they just aren’t Nos. 60-64 in these projections).
Last five in (RPI listed to left)
39 Washington (1-3-1 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5-1 vs. top 100, 6-4-0 last 10)
Washington no doubt benefits from the strength of its conference, not unlike the ACC team that follows, but the Huskies have their own case. The schedule was stellar, although down years for Rutgers (loss) and Penn State (win) weaken the profile a bit. The RPI is good and there are some quality top-30 results (win against Arizona State, tie against Wisconsin on a neutral field). In short, it’s a workmanlike profile. That’s enough.
49 Miami (2-4-0 vs. RPI top 50, 3-4-1 vs. top 100, 7-3-0 in last 10)
Miami seems to be here every year, and it’s tough not to look at their final four games and wonder if they will fall out of the mix. But looking only at what we have so far, they are in position to make it. A top-30 win out of conference against West Virginia helps, and beating Duke arguably makes the Blue Devils the team that should be in this spot. A loss is a loss is a loss, but a double-overtime loss at Florida can’t hurt them, either.
42 Baylor (1-4-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4-2 vs. top 100, 5-4-1 last 10)
A heck of a rebuilding job by former WNT member Marci Jobson, but no bonus points for that. All of Baylor’s dropped points come against top-100 teams and only Seattle (tie) and Oklahoma (loss) were outside the top 50. The lone top-50 win at home against Nebraska isn’t much of a signature win, but the overall work against the top 100 carries the day.
44 UConn (1-2-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-6-3 top 100, 4-4-2 last 10)
All those lost points early look a little better with the success teams like Siena and Providence have had and the Huskies are 8-4-2 since the first two weekends. No bubble team has more top-100 games to this point.
58 Long Beach St. (2-2-0 vs. RPI 50, 3-2-0 vs. top 100, 6-2-2 in last 10)
I’m not comfortable going this far against the grain when it comes to RPI — there just isn’t much evidence the committee is willing to do it. But the wins against Arizona State and Virginia Tech stand out (especially the neutral-field win against the Hokies). Saint Mary’s is the only loss outside the RPI top 100.
First five out
47 Louisville (2-5-0 vs. RPI top 50, 5-6-0 top 100, 3-7-0 last 10)
Gave up two leads against Marquette last weekend or they might even be better than No. 60, instead of down here. The recent form is going to hurt them — momentum counts. No bubble team has more than their five top-100 wins and not many, if any, have a better result than an RPI top-20 win at South Carolina. But most of it came early and last week’s sweep at the hands of Marquette and South Florida might be the backbreaker.
30 Texas Tech (0-4-1 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5-1 vs. top 100, 5-4-1 in last 10)
It would be a stunner to see a No. 30 left out, but I just don’t get how the RPI matches the profile for the Red Raiders. No top-50 wins and none of their top-100 wins — Oklahoma, Rice and Colorado — are likely to make the NCAA tournament. Even the non top-100 results include a bunch down around 200. The remaining schedule could be helpful (two attainable top-100 games against Baylor and Missouri), but for now, I don’t see it.
50 Michigan St. (0-1-0 vs. RPI top 50, 3-3-2 vs. RPI top 100)
35 SMU (1-3-0 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5-0 vs. RPI top 100)
59 Oklahoma (1-3-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4-2 vs. RPI top 100)
Next five out
52 Michigan
61 Rice
67 Alabama
57 South Florida
64 Providence
Of note, Michigan and Michigan State have backloaded Big Ten schedules. Both the Wolverines and Spartans will have a chance to play their way in or out in the remaining weeks — they control their own destinies as much as any teams on the bubble can. For that matter, the same could be said for Oklahoma, which closes with a brutal stretch — at Texas and Texas A&M before the home finale against Oklahoma State.
Bubble Busters: And the caveat to all of this comes with the teams that are likely to burst bubbles. Hofstra (Colonial), UC Irvine (Big West), UNC-Greensboro (Southern) and most likely Dayton (Atlantic 10) would all be at-large locks if they weren’t in position for automatic bids. Columbia (Ivy), Toledo (MAC) and Denver (Sun Belt) wouldn’t be at-large locks if they failed to win automatic bids, but they would at least add some more competition on the bubble.
Graham Hays 