Final bracket projection (Sunday a.m.)

A couple of scenarios depending on the outcome of this afternoon’s ACC final between North Carolina and Florida State. At-large bids projected below, with each conference’s automatic bid listed in parentheses.

At-large teams if UNC wins
ACC: (North Carolina), Georgia Tech, Maryland
Big 12: (Texas/Missouri), Baylor, Missouri/Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Big East: (Syracuse), Notre Dame, DePaul, Louisville
Big Ten: (Michigan), Indiana
Big West: (Pacific), Long Beach State
Conference USA: (East Carolina), Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB
Mountain West: (BYU), San Diego State
Pac-10: (Arizona State), Arizona, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
SEC: (Tennessee), Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU
WAC: (New Mexico State), Fresno State
MVC: (Missouri State), Illinois State
Inde: Longwood

At-large teams if FSU wins
ACC: (Florida State), Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina
Big 12: (Texas/Missouri), Baylor, Missouri/Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Big East: (Syracuse), Notre Dame, DePaul, Louisville
Big Ten: (Michigan), Indiana
Big West: (Pacific), Long Beach State
Conference USA: (East Carolina), Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB
Mountain West: (BYU), San Diego State
Pac-10: (Arizona State), Arizona, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
SEC: (Tennessee), Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU
WAC: (New Mexico State), Fresno State
MVC: (Missouri State), Illinois State

The bubble got a little more crowded when Illinois State lost early in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. Illinois State doesn’t have any wins against RPI top 25 teams, but everything else about the resume bodes well for an at-large bid.

Last five teams in
No. 64 Longwood
RPI 50
2-1 vs. RPI top 25
5-5 vs. RPI top 50
12-10 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 17-10
Key wins: Georgia, Notre Dame, East Carolina, Penn State (2)

No. 63 North Carolina
RPI 41
0-10 vs. RPI top 25
5-13 vs. RPI top 50
18-18 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 18-16
Key wins: Maryland (3), Penn State, Jacksonville,

No. 62 Memphis
RPI 43
3-3 vs. RPI top 25
6-10 vs. RPI top 50
11-11 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 22-6
Key wins: Stanford, Kentucky, Houston, UAB, East Carolina (2)

No. 61 San Diego State
RPI 39
2-11 vs. RPI top 25
6-15 vs. RPI top 50
13-18 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 18-10
Key wins: Stanford, Houston, Long Beach, BYU, Pacific (2) (Florida State)

No. 60 Illinois State
RPI 36
6-9 vs. RPI top 50
15-13 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Maryland (2), East Carolina, Illinois (2), Longwood

Longwood will raise some eyebrows. The RPI should get a bit of a boost from the doubleheader split against Georgia last week, but it’s still a team that will have to jump some teams ahead of it to get an at-large bid. Complicating that, as someone noted this weekend, is the fact that as a Division I independent, Longwood doesn’t necessarily have any allies in the conversation when the selection committee debates things. All that said, between the recent doubleheader sweep at another bubble rival (Penn State), the road/neutral top-25 wins against Georgia and Notre Dame and the strong close, Longwood seems to meet a lot of selection criteria. As the last team in, it would be in danger of being bumped should Florida State beat North Carolina.

First three teams out
No. 65 Illinois
RPI 37
0-9 vs. RPI top 25
4-17 vs. RPI top 50
18-21 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 19-15
Key wins: Maryland, Fordham, Penn State, Longwood

No. 66 Penn State
RPI 46
1-6 vs. RPI top 25
4-14 vs. RPI top 50
20-21-1 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 20-16
Key wins: Oklahoma, Fresno State, Tulsa, Illinois

No. 67 Florida State
RPI: 51
2-6 vs. RPI top 25
5-13 vs. RPI top 50
17-24 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 10-16
Key wins: Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Long Beach, Maryland, BYU

The RPI jumps out for Illinois. The selection process rarely deviates a great deal from it, at least not without an obvious compelling reason, and I don’t feel especially comfortable with four teams ranked behind the Illini in last week’s RPI ahead of them in these projections. That said, after splitting a two-game series at Minnesota to wrap up the regular season, Illinois doesn’t have a lot to hang its hat on other than the RPI. It only has one win against a team ranked in the top 40 of the RPI, it hovered around .500 in its final 20 game and it split at home against fellow bubble resident Penn State (in its favor, it beat Longwood).

South Florida and Virginia Tech round out the first five out. I’ll be surprised if either gets in, but USF’s five RPI top-50 wins at least give it a shot (a lack of total wins against top-100 teams hold it back).