To get this out of the way, these projections are not based on which teams I think should earn bids to the NCAA tournament. These are only projections of which teams I think would earn bids if the selection committee went about its business today, Oct. 20.
It’s my opinion, to be sure, but it’s not my opinion of any team’s subjective worth or my opinion of what will happen in the remaining weeks of the regular season and conference tournaments.
With that out of the way, here are the conferences which currently project with multiple bids. The current leader (or a flip of the coin in the case of the ACC and SEC) is listed in parentheses and doesn’t count toward the at-large pool.
ACC: (North Carolina), Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Duke
Big 12: (Oklahoma State), Texas A&M, Texas, Nebraska,
Big East: (Marquette), Notre Dame, Georgetown, West Virginia
Big Ten: (Ohio State), Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
Conference USA: (Houston), Central Florida, Memphis
Mountain West: (New Mexico), BYU
Pac-10: (Stanford), Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Cal
SEC: (Florida), South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia
West Coast: (Portland), Santa Clara, San Diego
That leaves five at-large spots available. (Not all of the above are “safe” at-large teams — they just aren’t Nos. 60-64 in these projections).
Last five in (RPI listed to left)
39 Washington (1-3-1 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5-1 vs. top 100, 6-4-0 last 10)
Washington no doubt benefits from the strength of its conference, not unlike the ACC team that follows, but the Huskies have their own case. The schedule was stellar, although down years for Rutgers (loss) and Penn State (win) weaken the profile a bit. The RPI is good and there are some quality top-30 results (win against Arizona State, tie against Wisconsin on a neutral field). In short, it’s a workmanlike profile. That’s enough.
49 Miami (2-4-0 vs. RPI top 50, 3-4-1 vs. top 100, 7-3-0 in last 10)
Miami seems to be here every year, and it’s tough not to look at their final four games and wonder if they will fall out of the mix. But looking only at what we have so far, they are in position to make it. A top-30 win out of conference against West Virginia helps, and beating Duke arguably makes the Blue Devils the team that should be in this spot. A loss is a loss is a loss, but a double-overtime loss at Florida can’t hurt them, either.
42 Baylor (1-4-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4-2 vs. top 100, 5-4-1 last 10)
A heck of a rebuilding job by former WNT member Marci Jobson, but no bonus points for that. All of Baylor’s dropped points come against top-100 teams and only Seattle (tie) and Oklahoma (loss) were outside the top 50. The lone top-50 win at home against Nebraska isn’t much of a signature win, but the overall work against the top 100 carries the day.
44 UConn (1-2-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-6-3 top 100, 4-4-2 last 10)
All those lost points early look a little better with the success teams like Siena and Providence have had and the Huskies are 8-4-2 since the first two weekends. No bubble team has more top-100 games to this point.
58 Long Beach St. (2-2-0 vs. RPI 50, 3-2-0 vs. top 100, 6-2-2 in last 10)
I’m not comfortable going this far against the grain when it comes to RPI — there just isn’t much evidence the committee is willing to do it. But the wins against Arizona State and Virginia Tech stand out (especially the neutral-field win against the Hokies). Saint Mary’s is the only loss outside the RPI top 100.
First five out
47 Louisville (2-5-0 vs. RPI top 50, 5-6-0 top 100, 3-7-0 last 10)
Gave up two leads against Marquette last weekend or they might even be better than No. 60, instead of down here. The recent form is going to hurt them — momentum counts. No bubble team has more than their five top-100 wins and not many, if any, have a better result than an RPI top-20 win at South Carolina. But most of it came early and last week’s sweep at the hands of Marquette and South Florida might be the backbreaker.
30 Texas Tech (0-4-1 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5-1 vs. top 100, 5-4-1 in last 10)
It would be a stunner to see a No. 30 left out, but I just don’t get how the RPI matches the profile for the Red Raiders. No top-50 wins and none of their top-100 wins — Oklahoma, Rice and Colorado — are likely to make the NCAA tournament. Even the non top-100 results include a bunch down around 200. The remaining schedule could be helpful (two attainable top-100 games against Baylor and Missouri), but for now, I don’t see it.
50 Michigan St. (0-1-0 vs. RPI top 50, 3-3-2 vs. RPI top 100)
35 SMU (1-3-0 vs. RPI top 50, 3-5-0 vs. RPI top 100)
59 Oklahoma (1-3-1 vs. RPI top 50, 4-4-2 vs. RPI top 100)
Next five out
52 Michigan
61 Rice
67 Alabama
57 South Florida
64 Providence
Of note, Michigan and Michigan State have backloaded Big Ten schedules. Both the Wolverines and Spartans will have a chance to play their way in or out in the remaining weeks — they control their own destinies as much as any teams on the bubble can. For that matter, the same could be said for Oklahoma, which closes with a brutal stretch — at Texas and Texas A&M before the home finale against Oklahoma State.
Bubble Busters: And the caveat to all of this comes with the teams that are likely to burst bubbles. Hofstra (Colonial), UC Irvine (Big West), UNC-Greensboro (Southern) and most likely Dayton (Atlantic 10) would all be at-large locks if they weren’t in position for automatic bids. Columbia (Ivy), Toledo (MAC) and Denver (Sun Belt) wouldn’t be at-large locks if they failed to win automatic bids, but they would at least add some more competition on the bubble.
Graham Hays 
Strictly speaking, I agree with most of your picks. But there’s no way the ACC is getting nine teams into the NCAA Tournament. The loser of the VTech/Miami/Duke tridente is going to get left at home. I think all eight teams in the ACC Tournament will go to the Big Dance. I’d bump Texas Tech up into the space of the ninth ACC squad.
I’m not sure the SEC is a four bid conference, it’s the weakest year for the league in quite some time. Auburn’s got a big mix of the good and bad on their resume. Their league form has been spotty to say the least (although the win against Florida was huge). Georgia’s hanging their hat on that one win against South Carolina.
It’ll be interesting to see how much carnage will come about with conference tournament upsets shrinking the bubble. Dayton would very much be on the bubble if they lose in the A10 tournament, especially to someone who isn’t Charlotte. Columbia probably can’t survive a loss that would cost them the league title. Toledo and Denver wouldn’t stand a chance in the at-large pool thanks to very flimsy resumes.
Fair points, Chris. I’d counter that every selection chair I’ve talked to always stresses conferences don’t matter — if the ninth team from the ACC has a better profile than the fourth or fifth team from another league, it gets in. Hypothetically. Now, in reality, does the human element affect that? Yeah, I think it absolutely does. And nine would be tough to do, I agree. But putting aside what may happen, as of now, Duke, Miami and VT all have cases. What’s the argument for Texas Tech? I’m completely open to the idea that I’m just missing something in their profile.
You’re probably right on Toledo, but I think you may be selling Denver short. 4-2-2 vs. top 100 (granted, that’s all 51-100 material). If they sweep the regular season, lose the conference tourney final at a neutral site in Bowling Green and end up in the 48-52 range, I’ve seen worse at-large teams.
I’m really looking at the human element in my assertions, and I also agree with your skepticism over Texas Tech. They’re being rewarded for not losing to questionable opposition rather than being rewarded for the quality of their victories. I do believe as far as the ACC goes, they would walk over broken glass before including a team that didn’t qualify for its conference tournament. The firestorm that erupted when Arizona State was selected will be nothing compared to a #9 ACC team making it in.
On that subject, since 2007, no team with an RPI ranking of 37 or better has been excluded from the field. At the moment, Texas Tech is well within the range of the “safe” teams. But of course, that’s not a guarantee of where they’ll be come the end of the season. And the committee could always use this season to make an example out of the Red Raiders and their minimal credentials.
Also in that same vein, since 2007, no school has received an at-large bid with an RPI worse than 49. That would seem to count Long Beach State out at the moment. A win (or two) over UC Irvine would certainly help their cause out.
I have no doubt that on a sheer talent basis, Denver would belong in the field. But their RPI is going to take a severe hit with any losses to Sun Belt opposition. If they lose, they aren’t going to be in the Top 52 in RPI in all likelihood. The committee has really only deviated from the straight RPI computations twice in determining the bracket in 2007 & 2008 and once in 2009. Even then, as stated above, the committee has only shifted down a place or two to bring a team in.
Virginia Tech is the real bug-a-boo this season. What in the world is the committee going to do if they finish ninth in the ACC but have wins over Maryland and Boston College on their schedule? I’m guessing a lot of committee members making the hard decisions are rooting for the Hokies to make it to the ACC Tournament.