World Cup memes I’d like to choke …

Four years later, two moments from the World Cup in China are as clear in my mind as if they happened yesterday. One, stepping out of a minivan in the middle of an intersection in Chengdu and realizing as it pulled away in a hurry (the folks inside were late for a United States practice) that I didn’t know where I was, didn’t have a functioning cell phone or a map and didn’t speak a word of any unhelpful Chinese dialects, let alone the one used in that part of the country.

Let’s just say my feelings about the situation now are far more fond than they were in that moment.

The second moment was in first catching wind that U.S. coach Greg Ryan had decided to change keepers on the eve of a semifinal against Brazil. I had only recently arrived in Hangzhou, a stunningly beautiful city a hundred miles south of Shanghai that, at least on this occasion, offered humidity with the same approximate thickness as oatmeal. As a result, after sweating through a shirt in walking over to the stadium to scout out the scene in the morning, I opted to lighten my carrying load and leave my laptop in the hotel when it came time to walk back over for U.S. press conference in the afternoon.

The team had been available the previous afternoon before it (and we) left Shanghai, and I had everything I needed to file a preview. Short of one of the players spraining an ankle getting off the bus, what could possibly have changed in the 18-or-so hours since last we met? We’d sit down with Ryan for a few minutes, listen to him evade any substantive answers (like any coach) and be on our merry way.

Oops.

It didn’t take a genius, fortunately, to know all of that went out the window with that one decision, a move that was sure to become a talking point even back on the other side of the Pacific (although the exact magnitude were certainly aided by a 4-0 score and a few words from Hope Solo). This was the fuel on which modern media runs.

All of which is a roundabout way of getting to the sense of being caught completely off guard by what has become the flashpoint in the wake of Sunday’s World Cup final between the United States and Japan, the debate that filtered through the office today and even led “Pardon the Interruption” tonight (which I point out only to suggest that when something has infected PTI, which I enjoy and respect to no end, it has infected the entire sports world).

Did the United States choke?

Wait, what, really? That’s what we’re talking about?

You watched that game — you watched Alex Morgan emerging as a player the national team can build around for the next decade, you watched Homare Sawa’s flick, Ayumi Kaihori’s kick save and 120-plus minutes of persistence from two teams, and you came away with the profound conclusion that we’re being too soft on the United States today because they’re … women? That we should rip them to shreds because Abby Wambach blistered a long-range shot off the crossbar, Lauren Cheney couldn’t quite get the right touch around a defender on a redirection eight minutes in, Rachel Buehler and Ali Krieger botched a clearance in the heat of the moment and Carli Lloyd channeled Roberto Baggio in the shootout?

Oh for the love of lederhosen.

To start with, and I hesitate to bring reality into such close proximity to a carefully crafted media backlash, there are plenty of people who have followed this U.S. team for a lot longer than three or four weeks who are ready, willing and able to point out the flaws in Pia Sundhage’s team, both on this day and over the longer haul. And talk about them they will, in the days to come, long after the peanut gallery has moved on to more Ochocinco antics. Yet I somehow imagine that if the United States had lost 5-4 in penalty kicks or hit the posts less frequently in defeat, those people currently bloviating about whether we’re being too easy on them would pass on a chance to talk about tactics and strategy.

You (which paradoxically does not apply to anyone who has sifted through enough cyberspace to find these words, so maybe I should stop using it) weren’t invested in women’s soccer in the first place, or soccer at all, for that matter.

It’s easier to say they choked than to admit you don’t understand a sport well enough to offer reasoned criticism.

This was a good American team, but it was far from a perfect team. In truth, it got everything it could reasonably have been expected to out of its talent — and probably a little more — by dint of effort. Anyone who thought it entered the World Cup as any sort of favorite did so purely on the basis of it being No. 1 in FIFA’s ever-meaningless rankings.

Ask Luke Donald and Caroline Wozniacki how much a ranking is worth (and it pains me to say that of a fellow Dane).

Anyone who thought the United States entered Sunday’s final as a prohibitive favorite probably didn’t watch a single game Japan played leading up to the final, a classification that coincidentally likely applies to just about everyone pushing the choke agenda. What the Americans did in largely controlling possession was, in fact, a remarkable bit of soccer. Again, I know it pains these people to watch anything that doesn’t involve our flag, but go back and watch what Japan did to Germany and Sweden.

What, you’re back already? That was quick. Where was Fatmire Bajramaj anyway, am I right?

The United States created chances that they would, could and sometimes should have finished. Lots of them. Oodles of them, in fact. Best I can tell, nobody is suggesting otherwise. But choke? Give me a break.

If the United States choked, it would have lost 3-1 (ask Sweden about it). If the U.S. choked, it would have ceded control of the game to Japan, trying excessively hopeful long ball after excessively hopeful long ball in reply (ask Germany about it). The United States didn’t finish chances. And you know what? That happens in soccer.

You know why we didn’t talk about the United States choking? Because we just watched a fantastic WORLD CUP FINAL between two teams that offered the rarest of things in sports — a meaningful game that exceeds the hype.

It was a game in which even the imperfections added something, the flaws only emphasizing how much effort was expended in its creation. It was a game that seemed safe to leave to history, confident nothing could alter that story.

I should have known better, the lesson of China clinging to me like the Hangzhou air. There is always time for the media, my media, to ruin things.

I’m sorry; I’m getting all choked up.

The game women’s soccer deserved

Twelve years after a soccer game introduced some number of sports fans in this nation to the notion of excellence in women’s sports, 22 women from the United States and Japan used the World Cup final to put on a display of something far more familiar to fans of all stripes, from the more than 48,000 in the stadium in Frankfurt to those watching from afar.

Excellent sports.

Japan’s double come-from-behind effort and eventual win in penalty kicks was mesmerizing, building from missed American chances early through a foothold gradually gained by Japan and reaching a peak in the suddenness of Alex Morgan’s strike to stake the United States to a 1-0 lead midway through the second half. Yet such drama proved to be only the preface, setting the stage first for Aya Miyama’s equalizer in the 81st minute, Abby Wambach’s seemingly storybook header off Morgan’s cross in the first period of extra time and Homare Sawa’s final fairytale leveler in the 117th minute to send the game to its conclusion.

That it all ended with penalty kicks, simultaneously the most thrilling and least satisfying conclusion currently available in sports, hardly dulled the game’s glow. This was sports at its best — moments like those from the United States vs. Algeria in the most recent men’s World Cup, sustained tension like that from Connecticut vs. Syracuse in the six-overtime 2009 Big East tournament quarterfinal and competition like Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer in the 2008 Wimbledon final.

It didn’t matter if you knew of Christie Rampone back when she was still Christie Pearce, if you watched Lauren Cheney endure College Cup disappointment after College Cup disappointment with UCLA or had never seen a women’s soccer game before Wambach’s header against Brazil in Dresden a week earlier.

If you’re a sports fan, you savored Sunday’s game because it was, in a word, brilliant. Devastating, heartbreaking and eternally frustrating if you watched with an American rooting interest, but brilliant nonetheless.

Brilliant because of the rich characters coming to life on the field, from the scoreboard successes of Wambach and Morgan to the athletically tragic figures of Carli Lloyd, the frustrations of shots she couldn’t quite get on target throughout the tournament boiling over in a penalty sailing over the bar, and Hope Solo, the best keeper in the world left to be consoled after the shootout loss. (To say nothing of the other side of the field, where Sawa, goalkeeper Ayumi Kaihori and coach Norio Sasaki and his oddly disarming pre-shootout grin offered compelling stories of their own).

And brilliant in the way in which sports offer an escape from and a magnifying glass on reality, the Japanese team’s athletic artistry unable to solve the problems affecting a country in the wake of a natural disaster, but also arguably able to lift battered spirits and inarguably able to remind the rest of the world of people still in need of assistance.

The debate arising after just about any memorable game involving women’s team sports, often frustrating passionate and casual fans alike , centers on the ramifications for women’s sports writ large. While there was little talk after Barcelona put on a show against Manchester United in the Champions League final about the greater meaning of the game for sports and society, there will be plenty of such conversation in the wake of Sunday’s final.

That’s unfortunate if it takes away from a game that stands on its own, from reliving thrilling, gut-wrenching moments like Wambach’s shot off the bar in the first half, the defensive lapse and attacking persistence that left Miyama alone in front of goal with the ball at her feet when Rachel Buehler’s attempted clearance ricocheted off Ali Krieger.

It’s also entirely legitimate.

All of this transpired in a tournament that came into being just two decades ago, within the lifespan of every player on the United States roster and most of those on Japan’s roster. That cannot be overstated. When Solo was born in 1981, the World Cup, even under another name at first, was 10 years away from creation. The United States national team was still five years away from playing its first match internationally. When that first World Cup took place in 1991, Florida, UCLA and USC, among many others, didn’t even have women’s soccer teams. Two decades later, those college programs had provided Wambach, Lauren Cheney and Amy Rodriguez to the national team’s front line.

Put another way, the first Women’s World Cup took place four months after Darren Clarke played in his first British Open. Looking at the product on the field Sunday and in this tournament, that’s evolution at breakneck speed.

Less than an hour after members of the Japanese team gleefully accepted their championship trophy in Frankfurt, WPS sides Western New York Flash and Sky Blue kicked off from Piscataway in a nationally televised game on Fox Soccer Channel. Odds are the ratings for that game didn’t get a huge boost from fans suddenly starving for more women’s soccer. And if history in any indication, even a chance to watch Brazil’s Marta, Canada’s Christine Sinclair and the United States’ Morgan share a field for Western New York won’t suddenly catapult the domestic professional league into the spotlight once college and (apparently) pro football begin to gear up next month.

But even if the crowds drift away and leave the passionate base to its pleasures as the WPS season continues and a college season approaches with rising stars like Melissa Henderson, Kristie Mewis and Bianca Henninger working on WNT-worthy profiles of their own, there is something happening here, just as it’s happening in professional leagues and training programs in France, England, Sweden, Japan and elsewhere around the globe.

Sunday’s game between Japan and the United States was one for the ages for reasons that had everything to do with sport and very little to do with gender or sociology.

And that’s a powerful statement in its own right.

Sunday’s game won’t change women’s sports all on its own. But women’s sports already changed games like Sunday.

Regional projections

I might as well predict lottery numbers, but trying to figure out the geography of a bracket (hello, Google maps!) is at least as enjoyable as sudoku. Then again, I don’t like sudoku. Anyway, a couple of possible brackets, one with Georgia Tech as a seed and one without. For the record, I still have Stanford as the final seed.

The seeded team hosts unless otherwise noted by asterisk.

Longwood/Florida State determined by whether FSU earns ACC automatic bid and bumps Longwood out of field.

1. Arizona State: Long Beach State, San Diego State, Lehigh
2. Alabama: Nebraska, UAB, OVC
3. Texas: Houston, Longwood/Florida State, Albany
4. Florida: Georgia Tech, Jacksonville, Iona/MEAC
5. Georgia: Syracuse, UNC, Georgia State
6. Missouri: Indiana, Memphis, Missouri State
7. California: Maryland*, Fordham, MEAC/Iona
8. Michigan: Notre Dame, Illinois State, MAC
9. Arizona: Auburn, Texas Tech, Harvard
10. Tennessee: Louisville, Chattanooga, Liberty
11. Oklahoma: Tulsa, New Mexico State, North Dakota State,
12. Baylor: UCLA, ECU, Texas State
13. Washington: Oklahoma State, BYU, Portland State
14. Oregon: Kentucky*, DePaul, HORIZON
15 Texas A&M: LSU, ULL, Jackson State
16. Stanford: Fresno State, Pacific, Sacred Heart

1. Arizona State: Long Beach State, San Diego State, Lehigh
2. Alabama: Texas Tech, UAB, OVC
3. Texas: Houston, Longwood/Florida State, Albany
4. Florida: Nebraska, Jacksonville, Iona/MEAC
5. Georgia: Syracuse, UNC, Georgia State
6. Missouri: Indiana, Memphis, Missouri State
7. California: Fresno State*, Pacific, Sacred Heart
8. Michigan: Notre Dame, Illinois State, MAC
9. Arizona: Maryland*, Fordham, MEAC/Iona
10. Tennessee: Louisville, Chattanooga, Liberty
11. Oklahoma: Stanford, Tulsa, North Dakota State,
12. Baylor: UCLA, New Mexico State, Texas State
13. Washington: Oklahoma State, BYU, Portland State
14. Oregon: Kentucky*, DePaul, HORIZON
15 Texas A&M: LSU, ULL, Jackson State
16. Georgia Tech: Auburn, East Carolina, Harvard

Final bracket projection (Sunday a.m.)

A couple of scenarios depending on the outcome of this afternoon’s ACC final between North Carolina and Florida State. At-large bids projected below, with each conference’s automatic bid listed in parentheses.

At-large teams if UNC wins
ACC: (North Carolina), Georgia Tech, Maryland
Big 12: (Texas/Missouri), Baylor, Missouri/Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Big East: (Syracuse), Notre Dame, DePaul, Louisville
Big Ten: (Michigan), Indiana
Big West: (Pacific), Long Beach State
Conference USA: (East Carolina), Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB
Mountain West: (BYU), San Diego State
Pac-10: (Arizona State), Arizona, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
SEC: (Tennessee), Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU
WAC: (New Mexico State), Fresno State
MVC: (Missouri State), Illinois State
Inde: Longwood

At-large teams if FSU wins
ACC: (Florida State), Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina
Big 12: (Texas/Missouri), Baylor, Missouri/Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
Big East: (Syracuse), Notre Dame, DePaul, Louisville
Big Ten: (Michigan), Indiana
Big West: (Pacific), Long Beach State
Conference USA: (East Carolina), Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB
Mountain West: (BYU), San Diego State
Pac-10: (Arizona State), Arizona, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
SEC: (Tennessee), Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, LSU
WAC: (New Mexico State), Fresno State
MVC: (Missouri State), Illinois State

The bubble got a little more crowded when Illinois State lost early in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. Illinois State doesn’t have any wins against RPI top 25 teams, but everything else about the resume bodes well for an at-large bid.

Last five teams in
No. 64 Longwood
RPI 50
2-1 vs. RPI top 25
5-5 vs. RPI top 50
12-10 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 17-10
Key wins: Georgia, Notre Dame, East Carolina, Penn State (2)

No. 63 North Carolina
RPI 41
0-10 vs. RPI top 25
5-13 vs. RPI top 50
18-18 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 18-16
Key wins: Maryland (3), Penn State, Jacksonville,

No. 62 Memphis
RPI 43
3-3 vs. RPI top 25
6-10 vs. RPI top 50
11-11 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 22-6
Key wins: Stanford, Kentucky, Houston, UAB, East Carolina (2)

No. 61 San Diego State
RPI 39
2-11 vs. RPI top 25
6-15 vs. RPI top 50
13-18 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 18-10
Key wins: Stanford, Houston, Long Beach, BYU, Pacific (2) (Florida State)

No. 60 Illinois State
RPI 36
6-9 vs. RPI top 50
15-13 vs. RPI top 100
Key wins: Maryland (2), East Carolina, Illinois (2), Longwood

Longwood will raise some eyebrows. The RPI should get a bit of a boost from the doubleheader split against Georgia last week, but it’s still a team that will have to jump some teams ahead of it to get an at-large bid. Complicating that, as someone noted this weekend, is the fact that as a Division I independent, Longwood doesn’t necessarily have any allies in the conversation when the selection committee debates things. All that said, between the recent doubleheader sweep at another bubble rival (Penn State), the road/neutral top-25 wins against Georgia and Notre Dame and the strong close, Longwood seems to meet a lot of selection criteria. As the last team in, it would be in danger of being bumped should Florida State beat North Carolina.

First three teams out
No. 65 Illinois
RPI 37
0-9 vs. RPI top 25
4-17 vs. RPI top 50
18-21 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 19-15
Key wins: Maryland, Fordham, Penn State, Longwood

No. 66 Penn State
RPI 46
1-6 vs. RPI top 25
4-14 vs. RPI top 50
20-21-1 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 20-16
Key wins: Oklahoma, Fresno State, Tulsa, Illinois

No. 67 Florida State
RPI: 51
2-6 vs. RPI top 25
5-13 vs. RPI top 50
17-24 vs. RPI top 100
Road/neutral: 10-16
Key wins: Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Long Beach, Maryland, BYU

The RPI jumps out for Illinois. The selection process rarely deviates a great deal from it, at least not without an obvious compelling reason, and I don’t feel especially comfortable with four teams ranked behind the Illini in last week’s RPI ahead of them in these projections. That said, after splitting a two-game series at Minnesota to wrap up the regular season, Illinois doesn’t have a lot to hang its hat on other than the RPI. It only has one win against a team ranked in the top 40 of the RPI, it hovered around .500 in its final 20 game and it split at home against fellow bubble resident Penn State (in its favor, it beat Longwood).

South Florida and Virginia Tech round out the first five out. I’ll be surprised if either gets in, but USF’s five RPI top-50 wins at least give it a shot (a lack of total wins against top-100 teams hold it back).

Saturday morning seeds

Before Saturday’s action gets underway, some thoughts on potential seeding.

1. Arizona State (RPI: 2)
6-2 vs. RPI top 10, 15-5 vs. RPI top 25, 20-5 vs. RPI top 50

2. Alabama (RPI: 3)
5-3 vs. RPI top 10, 10-7 vs. RPI top 25, 19-8 vs. RPI top 50

3. Texas (RPI: 1)
2-3 vs. RPI top 10, 12-5 vs. RPI top 25, 20-6 vs. RPI top 50

4. Georgia (RPI: 5)
6-3 vs. RPI top 10, 16-6 vs. RPI top 25, 24-9 vs. RPI top 50

5. Florida (RPI: 4)
3-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-8 vs. RPI top 25, 20-9 vs. RPI top 50

6. Missouri (RPI: 6)
3-3 vs. RPI top 10, 9-5 vs. RPI top 25, 19-6 vs. RPI top 50

7. California (RPI: 7)
3-3 vs. RPI top 10, 13-6 vs. RPI top 25, 17-9 vs. RPI top 50

8. Michigan (RPI: 10)
2-0 vs. RPI top 10, 6-0 vs. RPI top 25, 12-2 vs. RPI top 50

9. Arizona (8 RPI)
1-8 vs. RPI top 10, 13-14 vs. RPI top 25, 18-14 vs. RPI top 50

10. Tennessee (RPI: 13)
3-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-7 vs. RPI top 25, 14-8 vs. RPI top 50

11. Oklahoma (RPI: 9)
3-5 vs. RPI top 10, 9-11 vs. RPI top 25, 17-15 vs, RPI top 50

12. Baylor (RPI: 12)
4-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-9 vs. RPI top 25, 17-10 vs. RPI top 50

13. Washington (RPI: 11)
3-8 vs. RPI top 10, 9-13 vs. RPI top 25, 13-13 vs. RPI top 50

14. Oregon (RPI: 15)
3-7 vs. RPI top 10, 8-11 vs. RPI top 25, 14-12 vs. RPI top 50

15. Texas A&M (RPI: 16)
2-6 vs. RPI top 10, 7-10 vs. RPI top 25, 14-12 vs. RPI top 50

16. Stanford (RPI: 20)
2-6 vs. RPI top 10, 9-11 vs. RPI top 25, 11-13 vs. RPI top 50

Other contenders
Georgia Tech (RPI: 14)
0-2 vs. RPI top 10, 0-2 vs. RPI top 25, 14-3 vs. RPI top 50

UCLA (RPI: 19)
3-8 vs. RPI top 10, 7-14 vs. RPI top 25, 11-15 vs. RPI top 50

Oklahoma State (RPI: 18)
2-7 vs. RPI top 10, 5-10 vs. RPI top 25, 12-14 vs. RPI top 50

Notre Dame (RPI: 17)
1-2 vs. RPI top 10, 3-4 vs. RPI top 25, 8-6 vs. RPI top 50

Random thoughts
It’s easy to make too much of conference tournaments — in those conferences that stage them, they’re the last thing any of us see, obviously. But Georgia Tech’s loss against Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals nevertheless feels like a problem for the Yellow Jackets. They only played two games all season against teams currently ranked in the RPI top 25 — both against Georgia — and they didn’t win either of them. That they only lost once against teams ranked between 11-50 in the RPI (an eight-inning loss to Kansas) helps their case. but without the chance to get two more top-50 wins, not to mention doubling up their ACC hardware, I’m not sure the committee will slot them in ahead of their competition from the Pac-10 or Big 12.

Michigan jumps its RPI a little in these projections to claim the final hosting position for super regionals. Like Georgia Tech, Michigan is hurt by a lack of quality games, but the difference is the Wolverines made the most of those games they had against top-10 and top-25 opponents. Arizona is a tricky case because it’s reasonable to think the committee will have consider the Kenzie Fowler factor when it comes to the weak record against top-10 opponents (although the Wildcats had Fowler in the circle when they lost 8-0 to the Wolverines at the Garman).

I still have a hard time believing UCLA, if anywhere close to the cut, won’t land on the seed side of the ledger. That said, Stanford’s win at Arizona State on Friday night might set up the unthinkable. The Cardinal won two of three at UCLA and have an overall resume at least as strong. If the Cardinal drop the finale in Tempe and the Bruins clinch a series win at Oregon, maybe this flips the other way. A case could also be constructed for UCLA displacing Oregon if the former wins the series.

Yes, the RPI is out of order for Arizona above. There was an odd character displaying when it was in the right order, and it’s too early on Saturday for me to figure out why. So, yeah.