A little more than a week ago, I asked United States midfielder Christine Nairn if the Under-20 team found time between training and other summer activities to watch any of the men’s World Cup games. Not only did they watch, she said, but they sometimes used them as discussion tools in training — what would they do if presented with similar situations to those they watched unfold?

Someone should have stressed those were just hypothetical questions.

In a game that played out far too much like most of the men’s game from South Africa, the United States surrendered a goal inside 10 minutes and had to fight for dear life before finally tying the score in the second half. The major difference in this case was as the opening game of group play in the Under-20 Women’s World Cup, there wouldn’t be any extra time for the Ghanaians to score a second time.

As it was, the 1-1 draw represented the first time an African team has ever taken points from a United States women’s team in the World Cup, Olympics, Under-20 World Cup or Under-17 World Cup. And it leaves the defending champions in an uncomfortable second-place tie with Ghana behind South Korea in Group D.

U.S. starting lineup: GK; Bianca Henninger; D: Rachel Quon, Toni Pressley, Crystal Dunn, Kendall Johnson; MF: Kristie Mewis, Amber Brooks, Christine Nairn, Zakiya Bywaters; F: Sydney Leroux, Vicki DiMartino (Subs: Maya Hayes for DiMartino, 46th minute HT, Teresa Noyola for Nairn, 54th minute)

What went right, Part I: Start with the players who didn’t start the game. Jill Ellis’ first two substitutions worked out precisely as she presumably hoped. Maya Hayes came on at halftime for Vicki DiMartino and stretched Ghana, before and after she set up the equalizing goal with a great sprint down the middle of the field and showed poise in making the finishing pass to Sydney Leroux for the goal in the 70th minute. As she made her run, Hayes ended up with the ball at her feet courtesy of a pinpoint pass between defenders by Teresa Noyola. The Stanford midfielder came on early in the second half for Christine Nairn.

It’s fantastically easy to second-guess coaching decisions after the fact (fun, too), and it’s equally easy to stay quiet when the second guess you make in your mind prove far more fallible than a coach’s first guess does in reality. To that end, I was surprised (i.e. I thought it was the wrong move) when Ellis took out Nairn. Noyola was a clear choice as the kind of playmaker in the middle of the field that the U.S. needed and didn’t have in the first half, but I wouldn’t have had the guts to take out Nairn to do it. Ellis did, and that decision might have saved the point for her team.

What went right, Part II: The United States needed Noyola and Hayes because it wasn’t getting much play through the middle of the field for the first 45 minutes. What it did get throughout the game were good runs forward from Kendall Johnson and Rachel Quon, outside backs in the 4-4-2.

Talking to Ellis before the team left for Germany, she said exhibition losses against Germany and Japan left her concerned that opponents could focus too much on the middle of the field against the Americans without having to worry about getting burned by the outside backs. But until Noyola and Hayes came on, almost the exact opposite was true against Ghana – going wide was just about all the U.S. had. Quon wasn’t healthy in those earlier games against Germany and Japan, and her track record at Stanford and the international level speaks for itself as a player of attacking skill out of the back. But Johnson has a chance to be one of the truly promising long-term developments of this tournament for the U.S. program.

What went right, Part III: It’s usually not a great sign for the United States at any level when the keeper has a monster game, but credit Henninger all the same. There was nothing she could have done on the goal — beaten by a perfectly-struck ball that ricocheted in off the post — but she saved the draw on at least two occasions in the second half. Time and opponents with more sustained possession and set pieces will reveal more about her management skills, but she played the part of shot-stopper extremely well against Ghana.

What went wrong: Frankly, that’s a lot of positives for a game in which an American women’s team dropped points to an African side for the first time ever in a major competition. In part, that’s because Ghana didn’t luck its way into a point. The underdogs hit lulls and fell into a shell late, but they also showed a lot of creativity and talent. Nevertheless, the picture for the Americans is not entirely rosy coming out of the game, obviously.

Noyola and Hayes played well after the break, the outside backs provided some good push and Leroux netted a goal, but this again looked like a team for whom the attacking whole is less than the sum of the parts. It struggled to score against Costa Rica and Mexico in the late stages of qualifying. It struggled to score against Germany and Japan. It even struggled to score in the scrimmage I watched against a WPSL team over Fourth of July weekend.

It’s difficult to point to one particular pressure point. All too familiar with losing big to their regional not-quite-rival, Costa Rica and Mexico played defensive soccer, packing it in against the United States. I didn’t see the games against Germany and Japan, but from what Ellis said, it sounded like good teams bottled up a somewhat depleted United States through the middle and dared it to adapt. And against Ghana, a lack of precision and patience with passing in the first half morphed into some understandably hurried chances during the scramble to equalize in the second half.

What’s next: The United States faces Switzerland Saturday in Dresden (live on ESPNU, 12 p.m. ET). The Swiss turned in perhaps the worst performance of the entire field in a 4-0 loss to South Korea. It must be assumed they can’t possibly be that bad again. Still, this is a game the United States not only needs to win, but should win. Switzerland’s Ramona Bachmann plays for the Atlanta Beat in WPS and showed why with a few moves against South Korea, but she was also even more isolated (sometimes her own fault) and lacking for service (not her fault) for much of the game than Leroux was against Ghana.

ORANGEBURG, N.Y. — The FIFA Under-20 Women’s World Cup is a tournament about beginnings, but pardon United States forward Sydney Leroux if she’s looking instead for a fitting farewell. 

She’s always been a little ahead of the competition when it comes to finishing.

Still in its own infancy as the fifth edition gets underway July 13 in Germany, the tournament is a chance to catch a quick glimpse of tomorrow’s stars, a place where many got their first look at players like Brazil’s Marta or Canada’s Christine Sinclair. But it’s also the stage on which Leroux has lingered in the present. It’s the stage on which she matured over the last six years from youthful novelty and tactical afterthought into one of the world’s best young finishers.

The leading scorer for the United States during CONCACAF regional qualifying earlier this year, Leroux has long embodied youthful potential. At 14 years old, she was the youngest player in the 2004 Under-19 World Cup in Thailand (the event adopted the under-20 format in 2006) when she made two appearances as substitute for Canada.

“It was tough,” Leroux said. “Being so young, I was immature — I was 14 years old with 19- and 20-year-olds. I would have to say sitting on the bench, even though I was 14, I mean, it still broke my heart. And I just remember sitting on the bench and trying to hold back tears because I wanted to play so bad.”

After shifting to the United States youth system shortly thereafter, qualifying under FIFA rules by virtue of her American mother (born in British Columbia, Leroux also attended high schools in Washington and Arizona), she was still one of the youngest players on the American team that won the under-20 title two years ago in Chile.

Even her first two collegiate seasons at UCLA were spent starring as the kid alongside seasoned senior internationals like former Bruins Lauren Cheney and Kara Lang.

So like watching a younger sibling graduate from college, it’s a little odd to see Leroux, who along with co-captain Christine Nairn is one of just two returnees from the 2008 roster, play the role of wizened veteran. Yet there’s little doubt that while nature took care of getting older, Leroux also used the years to grow wiser, a distinction that has slowed and or halted the progress of many prodigies who experienced only the former.

Count her second World Cup trip as perhaps the seminal experience in that development. Current under-20 coach Jill Ellis, also Leroux’s college coach at UCLA and one of Pia Sundhage’s assistant coaches on the senior United States national team, saw a different player return from Chile than began that World Cup cycle.

“I think the process matured her, both as a young person and as a young player,” Ellis said. “I think it was an exceptional experience for her. The confidence and understanding what it takes to succeed at that level, I think it was very good for her.”

Ellis also knows exactly what drew so many to Leroux at such a young age. It’s not complicated, but it is the most coveted currency in soccer.
“Why she was such a highly recruited player coming of high school is because she scores goals,” Ellis said. “So I think it is something that’s natural. It’s a timing, it’s an attitude, it’s a technique — it’s all these things rolled into one. But yeah, I think there are natural-born finishers.”

Leroux scored 23 goals in 24 games for UCLA last fall, good for fourth in the nation. She’s just as potent when she puts on the national team jersey. She has scored 12 goals in 14 international games this year and 24 goals in 30 games all time with the under-20 team. That includes five goals in the 2008 Under-20 World Cup, enough to win the Golden Boot for a player who didn’t even start the team’s opening game.

That nose for goal may be metaphorical, but it’s complemented by an abundance of entirely tangible physical gifts. Leroux has a particular ability to play in ways that make her seem both bigger and faster than a middle-of-the-road 5-foot-7 frame might suggest. She has the speed to outrun most defenders at her level, be it college or international, to balls in open space, the strength to hold her ground inside the 18-yard box and the touch to make everything else she does count.

And in two most important games this team has thus far played, she demonstrated how much trouble opponents are in when it comes together. 

With World Cup qualification guaranteed to the winner in a semifinal against Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Under-20 Championship, Leroux held off one defender on a throw-in, wrong-footed a second to open a path toward the box, jumped over a third player’s attempted tackle and finally crashed to ground to earn the free kick that Teresa Noyola put in for the eventual winner. And with extra time looming in a scoreless final against Mexico, she chested down a long ball at midfield, touched a short pass back to Kristie Mewis, turned and sprinted past multiple Mexican players as Mewis played the ball to her on the ground. Barely breaking stride after a quick touch sent her into the box on the left side, Leroux fired a shot past the keeper to the near post for the winner.

 “I’ve kind of seen her grow up, I guess, with the past two years — three years now,” Nairn said. “I think her just being that threat, and she’s always rising to the occasion and always putting away that goal we need. I think she’s a very strong leader, and I think we will definitely need her many times this World Cup.”

On a stage usually reserved for cameos, Leroux has earned a curtain call. She is no longer good for her age; she is simply good. And what she’s best at is scoring goals.

“You may get the ball away from me nine times out of 10, but that one time, I’m going to get in behind you and I’m going to score,” Leroux said. “That’s kind of the mentality I’ve always had, and that’s kind of what works for me.”

ORANGEBURG, N.Y. — The United States and Ghana aren’t finished with the World Cup stage just yet.

On July 14 in Dresden, Germany, a continent and three weeks removed from Ghana’s 2-1 win against the United States in the knockout phase of the men’s World Cup in South Africa, and four years removed the men’s teams meeting in Germany during group play in the 2006 World Cup, the two nations will again renew acquaintances in one of FIFA’s grand global tournaments.

This time the two national anthems will precede the opening game in Group D of the Under-20 Women’s World Cup (Wednesday, ESPNU, 12 p.m. ET). And while the Americans are the favorites against their Ghanaian counterparts in the opener, defending the title they won at the last Under-20 World Cup two years ago will be a challenge.

The United States isn’t the only superpower in the women’s game at the senior level, so it’s no surprise it has plenty of competition at the youth levels. The U.S. won two of the first four Under-20 World Cups (contested as Under-19 events in 2002 and 2004), but it failed to reach the final in either 2004 or 2006, despite rosters stocked with plenty of players now part of the senior team. The American entry also lost out to North Korea in the inaugural Under-17 Women’s World Cup in 2008, meaning it has captured just two of the five major youth tournaments held.

Two years ago, the United States lost to China in group play during the Under-20 Cup, the first loss at that stage in four appearances in the tournament. Coached by Tony DiCicco, architect of the full national team’s memorable 1999 World Cup run, the 2008 team recovered but still needed one-goal wins against Germany and North Korea to reclaim the title for the first time in six years.

A group this time around in Germany that includes Ghana, Switzerland and South Korea, all relatively unproven in the women’s game, isn’t “Group of Death” material, but even the opening match offers something of a referendum on the increasing depth of the international game.

Nigeria has traditionally been Africa’s strongest women’s side, but Ghana opened eyes at the 2008 Under-17 World Cup. Although they failed to reach the knockout round, the Ghanaians drew eventual champion North Korea 1-1, dropped a 3-2 decision against eventual third-place finisher Germany and beat Costa Rica 1-0. Many of those players will be on the field in Dresden, offering what Ellis expects to be a fast, aggressive challenge for the Americans, who lost their final two pre-tournament internationals against Germany and Japan in June and were tested by Costa Rica and Mexico in CONCACAF qualifying.

One of Pia Sundhage’s assistants with the full national team (in addition to coaching a UCLA program that has made eight consecutive trips to the College Cup), Ellis isn’t one to lose sight of the forest for the trees at a developmental level.

“My goal is to hopefully get some of these players into Pia’s camp,” Ellis said. “So I think you do take that in mind, but obviously, yeah, we want to compete. I recognize that through this process of six games to win a World Cup, sometimes it’s going to be pretty and sometimes it’s not. It’s finding a way. And I think the other thing is this is where we develop that mentality [for the full national team].”

Here’s how the lineup may take shape in Germany.

Forwards
The American attack begins, but hopefully for it sake doesn’t end, with Sydney Leroux. Fourth in the NCAA in goals last season as a sophomore at UCLA, Leroux was also the Golden Boot winner as the leading scorer in the 2008 Under-20 World Cup and was the current team’s leading scorer in qualification for Germany. In Ellis’ 4-4-2 formation, she sits at the top of the lineup and generally does most of her work in the middle of the field, tracking the width of the 18-yard box.

Boston College’s Vicki DiMartino has played all over the field for Ellis, including some time at fullback against CONCACAF teams willing to sit back and play a defensive style against the United States, but she’s a natural attacker who has recently played as a second forward stacked behind Leroux.

Midfield
Christine Nairn is the only player on the roster who has earned caps with the full national team, and the rising sophomore at Penn State serves as the engine in midfield for the United States and wears the captain’s armband. As her resume suggests, she’s poised and plays with both a creative touch and a physical presence.

DiMartino’s teammate at Boston College, Kristie Mewis is a natural fit on the left side, with a strong shot from distance and good attacking instincts. UCLA’s Zakiya Bywaters and Florida State’s Casey Short both offer speed on the right side. North Carolina’s Amber Brooks earned regular minutes for the national champion Tar Heels last fall and seems to have found a home with the U-20 team as a defensive midfielder after some time in the back line earlier in the World Cup cycle. Stanford’s Teresa Noyola owns more U-20 caps than anyone on the roster except Leroux and is a goof playmaker who also scored on a free kick in the team’s qualification clincher.

Defense
The back line likely holds the key to success or disappointment in the World Cup.

“I will say, I think there’s a scarcity of quality, attacking backs, center backs,” Ellis said of the overall domestic picture in the United States. “I think there is a scarcity. We’ve looked at a lot of different players, and I think for me the attributes that are more important are they’ve got to be good in the air, they’ve got to pacey to be able to drop and cover and can they connect simple passes for us?”

Her answer is a quartet that includes two converted attacking players in Portland’s Kendall Johnson and Florida State’s Toni Pressley and one rising college freshman in North Carolina’s Crystal Dunn in addition to Stanford standout Rachel Quon.

The potential is there. Quon is a proven asset getting forward and Johnson’s emergence in recent months convinced Ellis she could safely return DiMartino to forward.  Pressley’s blend of size and speed could mean she’ll be wearing national team jerseys for years to come in the middle of the back line. But as five goals allowed in the recent losses against Japan and Germany  suggest, it’s still a work in progress in front of likely first-choice keeper Biana Henninger from Santa Clara.

Given the weight geography plays, I give myself about the same chance of getting remotely close with these projections as Super Saver has of winning the Preakness. And the race was over hours ago.

But it’s a fun puzzle to try and piece together, so what the heck. I can only be wrong 64 times, right?

One caveat; I was at Missouri last year for a game but can’t for the life of me remember if the field had stadium has lights or not. If anyone wants to clue me in, much obliged.

Projected host team denoted by *

1- Washington*, BYU, Texas Tech, Saint Mary’s
2- Alabama*, Louisville, UAB, Alcorn State
3- Michigan*, DePaul, Ball State, Wright State
4- Florida*, Florida State, FIU, Bethune Cookman
5- UCLA*, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Iona
6- Arizona*, Virginia, East Carolina, Cornell
7- Georgia Tech*, Oregon, Auburn, Syracuse
8- LSU*, ULL, UCF, McNeese State
9- Oklahoma*, Stanford, Tulsa, Creighton
10- Georgia*, North Carolina, Radford, Elon
11-Texas, Fordham, Maryland*, Long Island
12- California, Oklahoma State, Fresno*, UC Davis
13- Arizona State, UMass*, Hofstra, Boston University
14- Missouri*, Illinois, Illinois State, North Dakota State
15- Hawaii, Ohio State*, Kentucky, Bucknell
16- Tennessee*, Texas A&M, Lipscomb, Jacksonville State,

It’s that time of year again — softball bracketology time! What? I’m the only one who feels the need to use an exclamation point with that?

Starting with the basics, I see the 18 conferences below as definite one-bid leagues.

America East: Boston University
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big South: Radford
Big West: UC Davis
Colonial: Hofstra
Horizon: Wright State
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Ball State
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Northeast: Long Island
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Bucknell
PCSC: Saint Mary’s
Southern: Elon
Southland: TBD
Summit: North Dakota State
SWAC: Alcorn State

That Radford, Hofstra and Lipscomb are in that group is good news for bubble teams because they would have been at least strong at-large contenders had they fallen in their respective conference tournaments. But I digress. That leaves 46 more spots, including 12 more automatic bids. The teams below, listed by conference, I consider locks, whether they need at-large bids or are still in contention for automatic bids.

SEC: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee
ACC: Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina , Virginia
Big Ten: Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State
Big 12: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
Big East: Syracuse, DePaul, Louisville, Notre Dame
A-10: Fordham, Massachusetts
MWC: BYU, San Diego State

And these four teams round out the automatic bids.
Conference USA: East Carolina
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette
WAC: Hawaii

So if you waded through all of that, it covers 55 of 64 spots in the NCAA tournament. And as always, it’s those final spots that get interesting. As of Saturday night, here’s my take on the final nine at-large spots, ranked in order of probability, and the next five teams.

56. Auburn
57. Illinois State
58. Maryland
59. Central Florida
60. UAB
61. Texas Tech
62. Fresno State
63. Tulsa
64. Florida International

First Six Out
65. Northwestern
66. Nebraska
67. Houston
68. NC State
69. Southern Illinois
70. Baylor

Thoughts: The toughest call for me is the final two at-large spots. Florida International is 16-14 against RPI top 100 teams but only 4-6 against RPI top 50. If it does get in, the win it had against Florida last month has to rank as the win that saved the season (it was supposed to be the first game of a doubleheader, but the second game was rained out).

I had Northwestern in the final spot until this weekend, but two more decisive losses (one the Wildcats made a little closer late) against Ohio State only seem to add the the aura of a team that just doesn’t have the bona fides to make it. The 2-15 record against RPI top 50 isn’t as bad as it looks, given that 13 of the losses are against RPI top 25 teams (and the other two came against No. 26 Ohio State), but the positives just aren’t there.

Houston, Nebraska and NC State have very similar profiles. NC State has the most top-50 wins (8), but it didn’t do much against the top half of those teams and closes without much momentum (3-7 in its last 10 games). Houston and Nebraska both beat Georgia Tech as signature wins and own similar profiles against top-50 opponents (5-16 for Nebraska and 6-16 for Houston).

Conference tournament hard-luck teams? UT-Martin, for sure. The OVC got two teams in last season, but Martin doesn’t have anywhere close to as strong an at-large profile as Jacksonville State did last season. Also Southern Illinois, which is going to be ticked off, and understandably so, if two MVC teams get in but the conference regular-season champ doesn’t. But Creighton maintained a great late-season run by claiming the auto bid and Illinois State has a stronger resume than Southern Illinois. In the end, three top-50 wins (one of which was in a 2-1 series loss to Illinois State) don’t do it.