Before Saturday’s action gets underway, some thoughts on potential seeding.
1. Arizona State (RPI: 2)
6-2 vs. RPI top 10, 15-5 vs. RPI top 25, 20-5 vs. RPI top 50
2. Alabama (RPI: 3)
5-3 vs. RPI top 10, 10-7 vs. RPI top 25, 19-8 vs. RPI top 50
3. Texas (RPI: 1)
2-3 vs. RPI top 10, 12-5 vs. RPI top 25, 20-6 vs. RPI top 50
4. Georgia (RPI: 5)
6-3 vs. RPI top 10, 16-6 vs. RPI top 25, 24-9 vs. RPI top 50
5. Florida (RPI: 4)
3-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-8 vs. RPI top 25, 20-9 vs. RPI top 50
6. Missouri (RPI: 6)
3-3 vs. RPI top 10, 9-5 vs. RPI top 25, 19-6 vs. RPI top 50
7. California (RPI: 7)
3-3 vs. RPI top 10, 13-6 vs. RPI top 25, 17-9 vs. RPI top 50
8. Michigan (RPI: 10)
2-0 vs. RPI top 10, 6-0 vs. RPI top 25, 12-2 vs. RPI top 50
9. Arizona (8 RPI)
1-8 vs. RPI top 10, 13-14 vs. RPI top 25, 18-14 vs. RPI top 50
10. Tennessee (RPI: 13)
3-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-7 vs. RPI top 25, 14-8 vs. RPI top 50
11. Oklahoma (RPI: 9)
3-5 vs. RPI top 10, 9-11 vs. RPI top 25, 17-15 vs, RPI top 50
12. Baylor (RPI: 12)
4-4 vs. RPI top 10, 9-9 vs. RPI top 25, 17-10 vs. RPI top 50
13. Washington (RPI: 11)
3-8 vs. RPI top 10, 9-13 vs. RPI top 25, 13-13 vs. RPI top 50
14. Oregon (RPI: 15)
3-7 vs. RPI top 10, 8-11 vs. RPI top 25, 14-12 vs. RPI top 50
15. Texas A&M (RPI: 16)
2-6 vs. RPI top 10, 7-10 vs. RPI top 25, 14-12 vs. RPI top 50
16. Stanford (RPI: 20)
2-6 vs. RPI top 10, 9-11 vs. RPI top 25, 11-13 vs. RPI top 50
Other contenders
Georgia Tech (RPI: 14)
0-2 vs. RPI top 10, 0-2 vs. RPI top 25, 14-3 vs. RPI top 50
UCLA (RPI: 19)
3-8 vs. RPI top 10, 7-14 vs. RPI top 25, 11-15 vs. RPI top 50
Oklahoma State (RPI: 18)
2-7 vs. RPI top 10, 5-10 vs. RPI top 25, 12-14 vs. RPI top 50
Notre Dame (RPI: 17)
1-2 vs. RPI top 10, 3-4 vs. RPI top 25, 8-6 vs. RPI top 50
Random thoughts
It’s easy to make too much of conference tournaments — in those conferences that stage them, they’re the last thing any of us see, obviously. But Georgia Tech’s loss against Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals nevertheless feels like a problem for the Yellow Jackets. They only played two games all season against teams currently ranked in the RPI top 25 — both against Georgia — and they didn’t win either of them. That they only lost once against teams ranked between 11-50 in the RPI (an eight-inning loss to Kansas) helps their case. but without the chance to get two more top-50 wins, not to mention doubling up their ACC hardware, I’m not sure the committee will slot them in ahead of their competition from the Pac-10 or Big 12.
Michigan jumps its RPI a little in these projections to claim the final hosting position for super regionals. Like Georgia Tech, Michigan is hurt by a lack of quality games, but the difference is the Wolverines made the most of those games they had against top-10 and top-25 opponents. Arizona is a tricky case because it’s reasonable to think the committee will have consider the Kenzie Fowler factor when it comes to the weak record against top-10 opponents (although the Wildcats had Fowler in the circle when they lost 8-0 to the Wolverines at the Garman).
I still have a hard time believing UCLA, if anywhere close to the cut, won’t land on the seed side of the ledger. That said, Stanford’s win at Arizona State on Friday night might set up the unthinkable. The Cardinal won two of three at UCLA and have an overall resume at least as strong. If the Cardinal drop the finale in Tempe and the Bruins clinch a series win at Oregon, maybe this flips the other way. A case could also be constructed for UCLA displacing Oregon if the former wins the series.
Yes, the RPI is out of order for Arizona above. There was an odd character displaying when it was in the right order, and it’s too early on Saturday for me to figure out why. So, yeah.
Graham Hays 