Same drill as last week. The league below earn multiple bids in this projection. The current leader (or a flip of the coin in the case of the SEC) is listed in parentheses.
ACC: (Florida State), UNC, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami
Big 12: (Texas A&M), Oklahoma State, Texas
Big East: (Marquette), Notre Dame, Georgetown, West Virginia
Big Ten: (Ohio State), Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
Conference USA: (Central Florida) Memphis
Mountain West: (New Mexico), BYU
Pac-10: (Stanford), Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Cal, Washington
SEC: (Florida), South Carolina, Auburn, Georgia
West Coast: (Portland), Santa Clara, San Diego
Given the results of the weekend, it’s still difficult to see the ACC’s ninth team getting left at home. Duke all but locked up a spot with its wins. In this projection, Virginia Tech is the ninth-place team (although it’s entirely possible they pass Miami this coming weekend). And based on current data only, even at 8-8-1, an RPI of 37 with wins against Maryland and Boston College is enough to escape the bubble.
That leaves five at-large spots below. For what it’s worth, among teams listed above, I have Minnesota, Auburn, California, Georgia and Virginia Tech as the closest to the bubble, listed from most secure to least secure.
Last five in (RPI listed to left)
39 Nebraska (4-5-1 vs. top 100, 2-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
At this point, I wouldn’t say Nebraska is in much trouble — a case could be made that California and Georgia, among others, are in dicier positions. But the Cornhuskers’ overall profile is starting to look a little hollow without any kind of positive result in a top-25 game — Texas being the biggest prize on their resume. That may sound hypocritical, given the next team on this list, but everything is relative.
50 Oklahoma (5-5-2 vs. top 100, 1-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
Losing with barely five minutes to play at Texas A&M surely has the Sooners wondering what might have been, but a win at Texas is a big enough prize in its own right. Oklahoma feasted on RPI teams between 51-100 this season, which is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to the bubble, but beating the Longhorns on the road is a much needed top-50 win.
43 Michigan (3-3-3 vs. top 100, 1-2-1 vs. top 50, 0-2-0 vs. top 25)
Six points would have been perfect, four points would have been nice, but three points do the trick for now when it comes to the Wolverines. Lacking any top 50 wins on the season, they edged Minnesota on the road in the second overtime period (also losing to Wisconsin on the road in a second overtime). That gave Michigan a nice boost in the RPI ratings at a time when other bubble teams were taking a step in the wrong direction. Home against Illinois and on the road against Penn State to close the season will tell the tale, but for now, Wolverines are in.
42 Texas Tech (4-6-1 vs. top 100, 1-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
The Red Raiders are confounding. This week’s RPI drop makes them a more natural fit for the bubble, but it’s still a number that works to their advantage given the company here. The win at Oklahoma earlier in the season looks better after the Sooners went to Texas and won (it’s even technically a top-50 win at this point), but Sunday’s 5-2 loss at home against Missouri is a blow and giving up seven goals on the weekend doesn’t do much for the eye test. A lot of opportunity remains — beat Baylor this weekend and they might avoid a Big 12 quarterfinal date with either Texas A&M or Oklahoma State. For now, given events elsewhere, I’ll put them back in the field.
55 Long Beach (3-3-0 vs. top 100, 2-3-0 vs. top 50, 1-1-0 vs. top 25)
The bad news for Long Beach State is there’s little left for them to do to help themselves further, closing the season against two teams, UC Davis and Pacific, outside the RPI top 100. Losing 2-1 against UC Irvine over the weekend wasn’t a bad loss by any stretch of the imagination, but the reality is it was a missed opportunity that may come back to haunt the 49ers. Turning around for a top-100 win against Northridge on Sunday helps, but there is a lot riding on those wins against Virginia Tech at the end of August and Arizona State at the end of September.
First five out
53 Louisville (5-7-0 vs. top 100, 2-6-0 vs. top 50, 1-4-0 vs. top 25)
The first two teams on this list meet in a Big East first-round game in Storrs, Conn. on Thursday afternoon, so one gets a boost and one drops out of the mix (by rule, if it’s UConn, which would drop under .500 with a loss). For Louisville, losing at Rutgers to close the regular season was just one more part of a second-half slide that may prove too much for early success to trump.
58 Connecticut (4-6-3 vs. top 100, 2-4-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-1 vs. top 25)
45 SMU (3-6-1 vs. top 100, 1-4-0 vs. top 50, 0-3-0 vs. top 25)
The effort was there with a solid nonconference schedule, but the body of work just isn’t there with only a win against New Mexico to show for five games against likely NCAA tournament teams, topped by a pair of 3-0 losses against Central Florida and Memphis in recent weeks.
46 South Florida (2-4-3 vs. top 100, 0-3-1 vs. top 50, 0-3-1 vs. top 25)
The RPI puts them ahead of teams like Oklahoma and Long Beach, but the nonconference schedule is too weak to justify a bid for a team with only wins against Louisville and Cincinnati to show for their top-100 games.
52 Michigan State (2-4-3 vs. top 100, 0-2-2 vs. top 50, 0-2-0 vs. top 25)
The Spartans needed more than a draw against Minnesota out of a big weekend (which also included a loss at Wisconsin). But there is still room to make a move with games remaining against Illinois and Ohio State, as well as Iowa.
Closing kick: Neither Missouri nor Penn State are currently in line for the NCAA tournament because of losing records, but both remain in the hunt. Penn State, in particular, should be able to get above .500. And if the Nittany Lions had one more win right now, any win, they would be in the field with a 3-4-1 top-50 record, including a win against West Virginia and tie against Virginia. Missouri has much more work to do, but a run to the Big 12 final might make things interesting.
Next five out
Rutgers
Houston
Baylor
Loyola Marymount
Siena
Bubble bursters: Hofstra, UC Irvine and UNC-Greensboro. Outside possibilities for Dayton and Toledo. Boston University and Denver at least in the bubble discussion without other upsets.
Graham Hays 