1. The ACC picture now looks even more muddled. Miami’s 2-0 win against Virginia Tech and Duke’s 3-0 win against Boston College are both giant wins for teams on or near-ish the bubble. It’s Miami’s fourth ACC win, just the second time they’ve reached that mark. And considering they close with Virginia, Boston College and Maryland, this was the best chance for the Hurricanes to get that fourth win. The Hokies are now the odd team out when it comes to the ACC tournament (although they have should-win games remaining against Clemson and NC State to help change that), but they have arguably the best NCAA at-large profile out of the trio in this conversation. Virginia Tech beat Boston College and Maryland and tied Wake Forest, in addition to top-100 wins against LSU and Vanderbilt.
2. I have Long Beach State in possession of the last at-large bid, but the 49ers missed a chance that may come back to haunt them in losing 1-0 against UC Irvine. Even at home, it wasn’t a game Long Beach necessarily should have won, but even a point against a top-20 RPI team would have helped the cause a great deal. Sunday’s home game against Northridge, a top-100 team, is a must-win.
3. Wins at Tennessee on Sunday and at Auburn next week, plus an upset or two in the SEC tournament, and maybe we revisit it, but Alabama’s 3-0 loss at home to Georgia probably closes the books on any at-large hopes.
4. Auburn is digging itself a hole. Losing to Tennessee after back-to-back ties last weekend against Vanderbilt and Kentucky puts the Tigers squarely on the bubble. The Florida and Florida State wins are nice, and there is some depth as well, but 2-4-2 in your last eight isn’t going to cut it. If Sunday’s game against Georgia isn’t a must-win, and perhaps that’s still a bit strong, it’s at least a must-draw.
5. On seeding matters, it wasn’t a great night for ACC teams hoping to claim a second No. 1 seed (assuming UNC is in line for one of them already). Boston College is out of that mix, and increasingly in danger of being out of the mix for any of the top 16 seeds, after the loss at Duke. Maryland is in trouble after losing at Wake Forest, with a visit to North Carolina on Sunday. And Virginia and Florida State didn’t settle much with a 0-0 draw. All that said, with games remaining against Miami, Clemson and NC State, I still think Virginia has the best chance to sneak in and challenge Notre Dame (or possibly Oklahoma State) for a No. 1 seed.
Graham Hays 