When preseason polls go retro

The NSCAA preseason top 25 came out today. At least, I think it did. Honestly, I’m not entirely convinced they didn’t just change the date on the final poll from last season and recycle it – much like one day’s broccoli in the cafeteria mysteriously become the next day’s cream of broccoli soup (which worries me less than, say, fish sticks the day after sushi).

Ultimately, preseason polls don’t mean a heck of a lot, and as noted when I took my own stab at meaninglessness, the attrition this season makes sorting out the top tier of college teams all the more difficult. There really aren’t any right answers in early August. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to look at the NSCAA poll and believe many voters put much thought into how rosters have changed. The top seven teams are in exactly the same order as in the final poll last season, a rather remarkable bit of continuity considering a short list of the players no longer part of those teams includes: Tobin Heath, Whitney Engen, Casey Nogueira, Kristi Eveland, Ashlyn Harris (theme alert), Kelley O’Hara, Ali Riley, Lauren Cheney, Dea Cook, Kristina Larsen, Michelle Enyeart and Becky Edwards. Only South Carolina fell out of the top 10 between the end of last season and the preseason, dropping from No. 9 all the way to No. 12.

I appreciate the logic that the defending champion remains the champion until someone takes the crown from them (and by extension, College Cup teams remain College Cup teams, quarterfinalists remain quarterfinalists, etc.). You wouldn’t hear me complaining if preseason polls were abolished altogether. But as long as we have them, making them tributes to last season seems a little defeatist, no?

Again, polls don’t strike me as that big a deal, particularly the preseason variety. This isn’t a blood-boiling issue. But polls do play a roll in not only setting the perception of power for the season ahead but skewing surprises. Look back at just about any NCAA tournament bubble in recent seasons, and quality wins count, whether or not they’re officially recognized as selection criteria. And if we have it wrong from the start, getting it right later is only going to be that much more difficult.

Anyway, here is the preseason top 25, NSCAA style.

1. North Carolina
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. Notre Dame
5. Portland
6. Florida State
7. Boston College
8. Texas A&M
9. Santa Clara
10. Wake Forest
11. Florida
12. South Carolina
13. Penn State
14. California
15. Virginia Tech
16. Maryland
17. Virginia
18. Rutgers
19. USC
20. Wisconsin
21. Washington State
22. BYU
23. Oklahoma State
24. West Virginia
25. Central Florida

Also receiving votes: LSU, Oregon State, Memphis, San Diego, Marquette, Ohio State, Purdue, Auburn, Georgia, Michigan State, Dayton, Connecticut, Washington

Preseason All-SEC

The SEC released its preseason all-conference team today, listed below. Ashlee Elliott, Katy Frierson and Kayla Grimsley were on the preseason team a year ago. Elliott was also on the 2008 team, as was Kelli Corless.

Of some note for a conference still trying to build its own base, five of the 15 are from out-of-conference states. I’m not sure off the top of my head if that’s high or low, but I’ll be interested to see how that stacks up against other leagues (in terms of the SEC itself, three of 11 members of the 2009 preseason team and six of 12 members of the 2008 preseason team were from outside the league’s geography).

Allysha Chapman, D, LSU, Jr.
Kelli Corless, D, Georgia, Sr.
Taylor Cunningham, M, Ole Miss, Sr.
Ashlee Elliott, M, Florida, Sr.
Katie Fraine, GK, Florida, Sr.
Katy Frierson, M, Auburn, Jr.
Kayla Grimsley, F, South Carolina, Jr.
Chelsea Hatcher, M, Tennessee, Jr.
Molly Kinsella, M, Vanderbilt, Sr.
Brittiny Rhoades, D, South Carolina, Sr.
Meredith Snow, D, Ole Miss, Jr.
Lindsay Thompson, F, Florida, Jr.
Sammy Towne, D, Auburn, Sr.
Erika Tymrak, M, Florida, So.
Kathryn Williamson, D, Florida

Only 116 days until Cary …

It’s the ebb and flow of college sports that every team loses starters from season to season (well, unless the team is Minnesota, which is why this won’t be the last mention of the Gophers, who missed out on the NCAA tournament last fall). All the same, I can’t help feeling like the attrition is particularly noticeable at the top of the soccer pecking order. Maybe it’s because a year ago at this time, the teams coming off College Cup appearances still had most of their biggest stars — Kelley O’Hara, Lauren Cheney, Casey Nogueira, Tobin Heath and Whitney Engen, to name a few.

Fast forward a year and UCLA and North Carolina are each replacing roughly half their starting lineups, while Stanford moves on without last year’s Hermann Trophy winner, O’Hara, in addition to two key parts of its underrated back line in Ali Riley and Alicia Jenkins (at least the fourth College Cup participant, Notre Dame, enjoys more continuity). All of which adds up to a national picture for which the most accurate analysis, at least in my mind, might be a shrug of the shoulders — I wouldn’t pretend to feel confident about knowing what will happen this season.

But the more I look at returning talent and try to get some sense of what incoming freshmen might add to rosters, there’s one team that stands out.

So without further ado, one person’s take on the preseason top 25.

1. Portland
2. Stanford
3. Notre Dame
4. Boston College
5. North Carolina
6. Florida State
7. UCLA
8. Texas A&M
9. Virginia
10. Santa Clara
11. Rutgers
12. Penn State
13. Maryland
14. South Carolina
15. Florida
16. USC
17. Duke
18. Virginia Tech
19. West Virginia
20. Wisconsin
21. Ohio State
22. Minnesota
23. Dayton
24. Wake Forest
25. California

Hermann Trophy, Part 2: Revenge of the Hermann

If we only had eight fingers, would all our lists be in multiples of four? Just asking. Anyway, since five isn’t nearly enough to cover all the worthy candidates (although neither is 10, for that matter), a few more contenders for the throne as college soccer’s top player.

Vicki DiMartino, Sophomore, Boston College
Last season: 14 goals, 6 assists in 24 games
If you believe Boston College is for real as a serious player in the national championship picture — and like the ACC coaches, I do — it stands to reason that the Eagles will likely get someone near the top of the Hermann list. If we’re talking pure potential, I’ll take Kristie Mewis as the most talented player on the roster and one of the 10 or 15 most talented players in college soccer at the moment. But Vicki DiMartino isn’t hurting for talent of her own, and she may occupy a higher-profile role for a team many outside New England are still getting to know. Like her older sisters before her, she’s creative and good on the ball. But perhaps even more than either Christina at UCLA or Gina at B.C., she has a nose for goal and is very comfortable playing at the top of the attack.

Danielle Foxhoven, Junior, Portland
Last season: 25 goals, 12 assists in 22 games
Then again, when they cast the movie, they made Tom Cruise the fighter pilot, not the guy steering the carrier. Foxhoven is a fantastic player who deserves credit for her ability to do more than finish — not that anyone is complaining about how often she does that, too. For all the reasons stated in mulling over Sophie Schmidt’s chances, and for all the reasons Portland itself named Foxhoven its female student-athlete of the year for 2009-10, the junior is clearly a strong contender in her own right. Ruth and Gehrig, Magic and Kareem, Gibbard and Walla … take your pick.

Ali Hawkins, Senior North Carolina
Last season: 5 goals, 5 assists in 20 games
It’s a rule that North Carolina has to have someone at least in the conversation for the Hermann Trophy, right? Hawkins has already been a valuable piece of three national championships during her stay in Chapel Hill, so she seems a reasonable place to start thinking about the future beyond last year’s senior class (that she would have been part of, if not for the injury that wiped out most of her 2007 season). In terms of sheer force of will or soccer personality, Hawkins strikes me as being cut from the same cloth as Heather O’Reilly was on an otherwise young Tar Heels team in 2006. Hawkins isn’t the offensive star that O’Reilly was at the college level, of course, but from Anson Dorrance’s preseason podcast, it sounds like she’ll be playing more of an attacking role than the holding role she has at times filled admirably. To that end, I’m not sure you can win a Hermann on leadership alone, but if the Tar Heels stay at the top of the rankings, she may not need eye-popping stats to garner attention.

Morgan Marlborough, Sophomore, Nebraska
Last season: 21 goals, 7 assists in 19 games
Don’t judge Marlborough by her numbers — no matter which direction they lead you. The 21 goals she scored as a freshman last season are a bit misleading given Nebraska’s schedule — she scored 10 of them in a four-game stretch against Lamar, North Dakota, Akron and South Dakota. But it’s equally misleading to look at the numbers and write her off as simply the product of schedule-induced stat inflation. At 6 feet, she’s obviously capable of playing in a target role, but watching her in person last season — even coming as it did during one of Nebraska’s low moments in a 3-1 loss against Lehigh, it was readily apparent there is something special there. She’s agile, quick and perfectly comfortable with the ball at her feet. And as Texas A&M learned when she scored twice against the Aggies, she can score against any competition.

Christine Nairn, Sophomore, Penn State
Last season: 7 goals, 10 assists in 21 games
Like Sydney Leroux, with whom she won a U-20 title in 2008 and shared captain’s duties on the team this time around, she enters the fall on what must be a disappointing note after the early exit in Germany. Also like Leroux, it would be surprising to see any hangover from that experience reach even Labor Day. The only college player who has earned caps with the full national team [CORRECTION: Apologies to Cal’s Alex Morgan, who I somehow forgot already has two caps with the national team in 2010] she’s a playmaking midfielder who looks to have all sorts of new toys to play with in State College. Maya Hayes showed an ability to play wide and play on the ball in the attacking third that the Nittany Lions have lacked in recent seasons, and she’s just one part of a highly-touted freshman class that joins returnee and 13-goal scorer Danielle Toney.